Uncertainty, Intentions and Great Power Conflict — Sebastian Rosato

18. 8. 2026

How certain can great powers ever be about the intentions of their rivals, and what happens when that uncertainty becomes a permanent feature of international politics? In this episode, Professor Sebastian Rosato joins us to discuss 'intentions pessimism', the limits of information, and what uncertainty means for great-power conflict, diplomacy, and the study of international relations.

Sebastian Rosato

Sebastian Rosato is Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, where he is also a fellow of the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, the Liu Institute for Asia and Asian Studies, and the Nanovic Institute for European Studies.

Publications 

Europe United: Power Politics and the Making of the European Community

Intentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of Conflict

How States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy (with John J. Mearsheimer)

Chapters

00:00 Introduction

02:10 Is 'intentions pessimism' a structural or epistemological argument—or are the two inseparable?

04:38 Endemic uncertainty in international relations

06:33 The role of first- and secondhand information

12:48 Waltzian neorealism vs. 'intentions pessimism'

15:27 Has 'intentions pessimism' changed Professor Rosato's stance on IR?

18:11 Is 'intentions pessimism' applicable to great powers only?

20:44 Truism and falsifiability questions

22:20 Which IR theory draws the most criticism of 'intentions pessimism'?

24:50 Liberal institutionalism and constructivism vs. 'intentions pessimism'

28:05 How 'intentions pessimism' works across different regime types

31:41 Case study selection and theory grounding

37:42 Material vs. ideational explanations

40:07 Is 'intentions pessimism' about states or leaders?

42:50 Signals intelligence, satellite surveillance, and AI: do new technologies change the information problem?

46:17 The role of diplomacy and statecraft

47:54 Uncertainty in foreign policy analysis

53:46 How do we make progress in IR theory?