Trump's Foreign Policy Decoded — Hussein Banai

25. 6. 2025

This episode of The IR thinker offers an in-depth tour of American foreign policy under Donald Trump’s second term with Associate Professor Hussein Banai, tracing the shift from disruption to a more confident, unilateral consolidation of “America First” abroad. Moving across key regions – from the Korean Peninsula and the Middle East to Europe, Russia, China and Latin America – the conversation unpacks how presidential style, US political culture, and the think-tank ecosystem shape decision-making inside institutions such as the National Security Council. The episode culminates in an extended discussion of the 2025 Israel–Iran conflict, including the recent US strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and what they reveal about Trump’s approach to coercion, alliance management and strategic risk in a more fragmented international order.

Hussein Banai

Dr Hussein Banai is Associate Professor of International Studies at the Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies, Indiana University, a Research Affiliate at the Center for International Studies at MIT, and currently a visiting fellow at the Perry World House, University of Pennsylvania. In autumn 2024 he was the Zahedi Family Fellow at the Program in Iranian Studies at Stanford University. His work bridges international relations and political theory, with a particular focus on political ideologies, conflict, diplomatic history and practice, and the politics of modern Iran.

Publications:

Hidden Liberalism: Burdened Visions of Progress in Modern Iran

Republics of Myth

Content

00:00 - Introduction
02:17 - From Disruption to Consolidation: Trump’s Second Term Strategy
07:45 - Trump’s Confident Unilateralism in Foreign Policy
10:54 - American Political Culture and the Think Tank Ecosystem
15:18 - America First Policy: Domestic Appeal and Implementation
22:16 - The Strategic Use of “America First” Despite International Concerns
24:29 - Inside the National Security Council: Roles and Functions
30:23 - Personnel Quality in US Foreign Policy Decision-Making
35:01 - Decoding US Foreign Policy Statements: Research Challenges
38:56 - North Korea Diplomacy: Prospects for a Second Trump-Kim Summit
41:38 - Middle East Triangulation: US-Israel-Iran Relations and Trump-Netanyahu Dynamics
50:11 - Steve Witkoff’s Contrasting Negotiation Mandates
53:16 - Trump’s Scepticism Toward Multilateral Institutions and Frameworks
57:27 - Neighbours First - Trump’s Approach to Canada, Mexico, and Latin America
01:04:03 - Understanding Trump’s Foreign Policy Through IR Theories
01:09:12 – EU vs. Member States: Trump’s Fragmented View of Europe
01:14:37 – Trump’s Geopolitical Take on the EU: Weakness, Irrelevance, or Rival?
01:20:28 – China Policy: Strategic Rivalry Meets Economic Interdependence
01:25:33 – Taiwan’s Role in Trump’s China Strategy
01:29:23 – Trump and Putin: Personal Chemistry and Strategic Ambiguity
01:37:20 – U.S. Sanctions on Russia: Tools of Pressure or Leverage for a Deal?
01:42:25 – Why Trump Believes Iran Must Never Go Nuclear
01:47:32 – Iran in Trump’s First Term: Maximum Pressure, Minimal Results?
01:57:58 – 2025 Israel-Iran Conflict - U.S Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Infrastructure