10. 6. 2025

This episode of The IR thinker looks ahead to the political and economic future of Syria in a post-Assad scenario, in conversation with Dr Joseph Daher. The discussion explores whether a new order would genuinely break with Syria’s entrenched war economy or merely reconfigure existing networks of power and patronage, and what might happen to Assad’s inner circle. It examines the current state of Syria’s economy, the role of technocrats, expatriates and the wider diaspora in any reconstruction process, and how religion may shape post-conflict politics and social life. 

The episode also considers potential income sources for reconstruction, contrasts the likely approaches of Middle Eastern and Western states, and assesses the roles of Russia, China and regional dynamics involving Turkey and the Kurds in reshaping Syria’s diplomacy and external relations.

Joseph Daher

Dr Joseph Daher is a scholar of the contemporary Middle East specialising in political economy, political Islam and modern regional history, with a particular focus on Syria, Lebanon, Egypt and Palestine. He is an associate researcher at the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies and, between 2018 and 2024, was a visiting professor at the European University Institute in Florence, where he contributed to and co-led major research projects on the Syrian war economy and post-conflict trajectories. He has published widely in English, French and Arabic in academic journals and research outlets, and is the founder of the blog Syria Freedom Forever, a platform dedicated to critical analysis of Syrian politics and society.

Publications:

Hezbollah: The political economy of Lebanon’s Party of God

Syria after the uprisings: The political economy of state resilience

The deep roots of the depreciation of the Syrian pound

Syria’s manufacturing sector: The model of economic recovery in question

State institutions and regime networks as service providers in Syria

Water scarcity, mismanagement and pollution in Syria

Content

00:00 - Introduction
02:50 - Post-Assad Order: Continuity or Break from Syria’s War Economy?
07:34 - Fate of Assad’s Inner Circle: Where Are They Now?
12:02 - Current State of Syria’s Economy
21:47 - Technocrats and Expatriates in Syria’s Government: Redistribution of Resources
28:17 - Role of Syrian Diaspora and Leaders in Exile
31:38 - Religion’s Influence in Syria’s Reconstruction and Post-Assad Era
36:52 - Main Potential Income Sources for Syria in Reconstruction
43:34 - Approaches of Middle Eastern States vs. Western Economies towards Syria: Solidarity or Profit-Driven?
47:00 - Role of Russia and China in Syria’s Reconstruction
52:48 - Geopolitical Triangle: Turkey, Syria, and the Kurds
58:04 - Strengthening Syria’s International Diplomacy