Japan's Political Future and Global Role — Bill Emmott

28. 12. 2024

This episode of The IR thinker explores Japan’s current political uncertainty and its implications for international relations with Bill Emmott, former Editor-in-Chief of The Economist and long-standing analyst of Japanese politics and economics. The conversation examines the Liberal Democratic Party’s enduring dominance and the incomplete nature of societal consensus behind it, before turning to Japan’s pressing energy dilemmas, including nuclear restarts, the prospects for leading the energy transition despite lagging in renewables, and the broader economic and security stakes of energy policy. We also discuss debates around Article 9 and constitutional revision, the state of the US–Japan alliance, Tokyo’s relations with South Korea, and Japan’s positioning in the Indo-Pacific amid tensions over Taiwan, China’s economic leverage and the Belt and Road Initiative.

Bill Emmott

Bill Emmott is an independent writer, consultant and commentator on international affairs, best known for his 13-year tenure as Editor-in-Chief of The Economist, where he helped shape the magazine’s voice on global politics, economics and business. A prolific author and widely respected Japan specialist, he has written extensively on the country’s political economy, including The Sun Also Sets: Why Japan Will Not Be Number One and Japan’s Far More Female Future, which examines gender, work and Japan’s long-term prospects. He is Ushioda Fellow at Tokyo College, University of Tokyo, chairs the Japan Society in the UK (until December 2024) and the trustees of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and in 2016 received the Order of the Rising Sun, Gold Rays with Neck Ribbon, from the Japanese government for his contribution to UK–Japan relations.

Content

00:00 - Introduction
03:52 - International Impact of the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) Dominance
08:25 - LDP: A Conservative Party in Liberal Clothing?
11:06 - Energy Security Amid Domestic Political Uncertainty
15:43 - Public Opinion on Reopening Nuclear Plants
19:03 - Can Japan Lead the Energy Transition Despite Lagging in Renewables?
22:05 - Article 9 and Its Role in Japan’s Contemporary Security Strategy
29:41 - Prospects for Modifying Article 9
32:18 - The State of the US-Japan Alliance in 2024
35:42 - Opportunities for Japan-South Korea Relations Amid Indo-Pacific Tensions
39:07 - Prime Minister’s Vision of an Asian ‘NATO’
41:57 - Japan’s Role in Taiwan Strait Tensions
45:07 - China’s Economic Leverage Over Japan
47:06 - Japan’s Response to the Belt and Road Initiative
50:04 - Achievements and Challenges in Japanese Economic Diplomacy
55:45 - The Role of Japan Society in the UK in International Relations

Note: At 5:09 min, the following sentence was said by Bill Emmott during the interview: ‘That a full consensus has not really successfully built up and become shared across the whole of society.’