17. 11. 2025

This episode of The IR thinker offers a clear and structured tour of contemporary nuclear strategy with Dr Stephen Herzog, moving from the basic categories of nuclear weapons to the political struggles surrounding their control. We unpack the logic of existential and extended deterrence, alliance commitments and escalation management, and examine how arms control agreements and the Non-Proliferation Treaty sustain, yet also entrench, a great power nuclear monopoly. The conversation tackles aspirant nuclear states, debates over “how many is enough”, and the tension between confidence and overconfidence in crisis signalling, before turning to how emerging technologies are reshaping verification, command-and-control, and the broader governance of nuclear weapons.

Stephen Herzog

Dr Stephen Herzog is Professor of the Practice at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and an Associate of the Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard Kennedy School. A leading specialist in nuclear non-proliferation and arms control, he combines academic expertise with policy experience gained as a technical nuclear arms control official at the U.S. Department of Energy, where he worked directly on the implementation and verification of nuclear agreements. His work bridges theory and practice to illuminate how deterrence, treaty regimes and technological change interact in shaping global nuclear security.

Publications:

Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail

Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility

‘What about China?’ and the threat to US–Russian nuclear arms control

Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use

Winning Hearts and Minds? How the United States Reassured During the Russo-Ukrainian War

The Trilateral Dilemma: Great Power Competition, Global Nuclear Order, and Russia’s War on Ukraine

Content

00:00 – Introduction
01:57 – Types and Categories of Nuclear Weapons
08:40 – Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Historical and Contemporary Contexts
10:32 – Understanding the Concept of Existential Deterrence
16:39 – Extended Deterrence and the Logic of Alliance Security
25:54 – The NPT and the Persistence of Great Power Monopoly
31:53 – Treaty Reform or Status Quo? The Politics of Nuclear Governance
33:12 – Aspirant States and the Quest for Nuclear Capability
34:47 – Escalation Control: Between Arms Agreements and Overconfidence
43:15 – The Dilemma of Quantity: Many vs. Few Nuclear Weapons
50:38 – Authority and Legitimacy: Who Decides Nuclear Access?
55:58 – Technological Challenges to Nuclear Security and Control