14. 10. 2025

This episode of The IR thinker offers a sharp, policy-focused tour of how Australia is recalibrating its security posture in an era of intensifying regional competition, with strategist and defence analyst Dr Peter Layton. The conversation examines the evolving logic of alliances with the United States and Japan, the growing reliance on multilateral formats, and the strategic stakes of AUKUS and submarine procurement for Australia’s long-term force structure. 

We also explore the potential and limits of the Quad and security cooperation with ASEAN, the dilemmas created by deep economic ties with China alongside mounting security concerns, and the vulnerabilities and trade-offs highlighted in the 2024 National Defence Strategy. The episode closes by assessing defence spending priorities, the challenge of diversifying supply chains, and under-researched aspects of Australia’s middle-power role in a more contested Indo-Pacific.

Peter Layton

Dr Peter Layton is a Visiting Fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University, an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), and a Fellow of the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group. A former RAAF officer with extensive experience in aviation and defence planning, he received the US Secretary of Defense’s Exceptional Public Service Medal for his work on force structure at the Pentagon and has held a research fellowship at the European University Institute. His research focuses on grand strategy, national security policy with a particular emphasis on middle powers, defence force structure concepts and the implications of emerging technologies, bringing together practitioner insight and academic analysis on Australia’s strategic choices.

Publications:

Non-Western Airpower: Diverse, Dissimilar and Disruptive

Warfare in the robotics age: Studies in technology and security: innovation, impact, and governance

Grand Strategy

The Idea of Grand Strategy

Content

00:00 – Introduction
02:00 – Alliances with the US and Japan: Security Gains or Strategic Constraints?
04:16 – Multilateralism in Australia’s Security Strategy
07:02 – AUKUS and the Future of Australian Defence
15:50 – Submarine Procurement: Strategic Rationale and Implications
23:02 – The Quad and Australia’s Security Role
29:54 – Making the Quad More Effective and Productive
33:03 – Security Cooperation with ASEAN: Opportunities and Limits
41:52 – Managing the Dual Relationship with China: Economics vs Security
50:26 – Assessing the 2024 National Defence Strategy and Middle-Power Vulnerabilities
55:51 – Military Spending: Balancing Capability and Sustainability
01:01:06 – Diversifying Australia’s Defence Supply Chains
01:07:52 – Under-Researched Dimensions of Australia’s Security